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With my Lovely Professional University friends

International youth Forum,New delhi 2012

With my delegate members

International Youth Forum,New Delhi 2012

Winners of President and Vice president for IYF

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Thursday, 22 March 2012

How currency Fluctuates,Syed Abdul Zelani,Lovely Professional University

Rupee fluctuates.Know how it fluctues ,what is cause for it,measures for controling it etc....................

Do we even care if the rupee falls against a dollar? We leave such news to NRIs to worry about the exchange rate. For domestic investors, does rupee fluctuation hardly make any difference? Most investors do not read between the lines regarding how rupee fluctuation impacts their investments. Moreover, the exchange rate phenomenon seems esoteric for most of the common investors. Here are some aspects of rupee fluctuation and its impact on our investments:

"Like stock market it's also a game of demand and supply.when we have a supply more than the demand then the rupee will appreciate (decreases) against dollar, valuae depriciates (increases) when supply is less and demand is more.RBI plays a major role in this to stop the heavy if the value of rupee is appreciating very high (rs.40 hypothetical figure) then RBI will buy much Dolars to create shortage of dollar.. and vise versa..i.e supplies much dollars into market to when the rupee is depreciating(increasing)"--Abhishaik chowdary,Asst proff of Finance,Lovely Professional University.

In dec 2011.india has faced heavy depreciation of rupee nearly 55.then RBI has brought this to around 47 in one month by doing these 
1.Increasing NRI deposit intrest rates(attracted large number of dollars from US)
2.Increasing Gold Import duty by 2%
3.other RBI regulations

Currency fluctuation
There are mainly two ways by which currency rates are managed. Firstly, countries fix their currency against dollar. Hence the exchange rate doesn’t change. Government takes action to manage any fluctuation that may happen. Secondly, countries leave it to the market to decide their exchange rate. In such a system, countries follow policy of non-interference.

India doesn’t have a fixed value of rupee against dollar but it also doesn’t keep its currency completely floating against dollar. We have a system where the central bank allows rupee to fluctuate within a specified range.

Usually, rupee appreciation is taken as economy gaining strength while depreciation is taken as Indian economy losing strength.

How it impacts investors
Let’s look at how rupee fluctuation impacts investors’ decisions. Let’s look at appreciation first.

Rupee appreciation 
Rupee appreciation is considered bad for companies where major part of their revenue comes from export. Appreciation of rupee makes products more expensive for export. When the products become expensive, importing nations either reduce the import or look out for other nations that can produce the same product at cheaper prices. Hence, any appreciation in rupee is often accompanied with clamour by export companies to devalue the currency.

Rupee appreciation is good for companies that depend on import from other countries. For example, oil companies, Pharma, Engineering, and medical device companies will be fine with rupee appreciation. The machinery, oil, and engine used in such industries will be cheaper to buy. Investors can consider investing in such companies when rupees appreciate.

Let’s take an example. Suppose the rupee dollar exchange rate is 50 (i.e. Rs 50 - $1). A company in export sector earns a profit margin of 15% from export. If the rupee appreciates and the new exchange rate is Rs 40 = $1. In this case, the company has lost 20% of the income.

This impacts investors in sectors that depend on export for their income. The typical examples are software industry and textile. Their dependence on export is heavy. Any rupee appreciation will hit software and textile industries hard. We have seen what happened in 2008 when America went into recession, dollar lost value and rupee appreciated against dollar. There were lay-offs, increased hours, flat revenues, and reducing profit. Investors in export oriented sector will be hit by any appreciation in rupee.

Rupee depreciation 
Rupee depreciation is when it loses value against dollar. For a nation like India where import is more than export, rupee depreciation makes things worse because imports get expensive. This increases the deficit. Rupee depreciation is not a good signal except for export driven companies.

For Indian economy, which depends on oil import, any fall in rupee will impact its oil bill. This will increase inflation because of increased oil bill. Increased inflation eats into the returns of investors. Moreover, a high inflation reduces the economic activity and consumption.

Software companies, textile companies, and many other export driven sectors such as tourism are the ones where investors can think of investing. Their export becomes cheaper and hence they can sell more to the overseas clients. These companies will do well.

Important points to keep in mind
Since the global crisis is yet to stabilize, there will be extreme fluctuation of currency or rupee. Greek crisis, Eurozone, America’s growth, and many other factors will impact the currency rate. Investors are advised to trade based on currency fluctuation only when they have some expertise in this. There will be times when rupee fluctuation may not impact individual companies or sectors because of other factors present. For example, if rupee depreciates against dollar further, there is not much chance that software industry will improve its income as they did in the past. They have become quite matured and going from here to the next level will require different ways to develop software.

Finally, the rupee dollar exchange rate will remain volatile till the crisis persists. Hence investors should practice caution when investing in exchange rate sensitive sectors.